Putin's War against Ukraine | The Russo-Ukrainian War 2022

 Putin's War against Ukraine | Russo-Ukrainian War 2022

An Analysis by Jonathan Berry 02 February, 2022 16:00 UTC-6

Flag of Ukraine

On Thursday, the Twenty-fourth of February in the Year 2022 at around 05:00 local time (UTC+2, Kyiv), Russia invaded Ukraine. In this blog-post I do not intend to provide a hour by hour or even a day by day account of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Russo-Ukrainian War. Rather, I want to take a look at the greater situation, a look at the historical parallels and the possible outcomes. I am writing this on Sunday, February 27, 2020 around 14:00 UTC-6. The situation may have changed by the time you are reading this.

As of writing, Ukrainian military forces are giving Russia a bloody nose. I would not say they are winning, but by providing stiff resistance and tougher resistance than Russia was expecting, Ukraine has a chance. The Ukrainian regular military forces are still operational and fighting back, in addition irregular military forces are reportedly springing up and are also operational and fighting Russia. Regular and Irregular forces fight different. Regular forces have combat doctrines and training, heavily armed and potentially predictable. Irregular forces can vary from an untrained civilian to highly training professional soldiers; there doctrines and training are all over the place. This is much harder to predict and counter. Just ask any US Vietnam Veteran. irregular forces, even if they are no achieving massive victories can become a nuisance to an invading or occupying force, a distraction. If irregular forces can harass and distract Russian Forces, this allows regular Ukrainian forces to have a better chances.

Speaking of Russian forces, they are as much victims as all Ukrainians. From what I have gathered, most of the Russian troops that have so far been brought against Ukraine are young conscripts. These are people who have been ordered to invade. The news has reported that some captured Russians soldiers are not only in shock about the invasion and war, but one reportedly was allowed to call his mother and told his mother that he though they were only on a training exercise and that they were not going to invade Ukraine. If these reported cases are not outliers, this speaks to how the individual Russian soldiers are also victims.

The Russian people are also reportedly against the war, with hundreds of thousands protesting the war and calling for end to hostiles with Ukraine, they are calling for an end of the war. Protesters are also calling for the resignations of Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishusti, as well as the release of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny. As of writing at least 5,716 Russians have been arrested for protesting the war. I imagine many thousands more will be arrested before the war is over.

This is not Russia's War, but Putin's War. Putin who wants to reforge the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. He is living in the past. It is dangerous for the World. Putin is rapidly becoming a non-rational actor. He is threatening nuclear war if NATO further supports Ukraine. He has invaded Ukraine out of weakness not strength, whenever a strong-man fells the need to invade a weaker country it is because they feel they are loosing their domestic power and they believe an invasion is a sign of strength, but it is in fact an act of weakness. Putin' actions have made the nearly entire world mad at him.

For peace to be restored Putin needs to go. I've seen people on twitter calling for him to be assassinated. Putin is going the Ranks of Hitler, Stalin, and Mao as evil dictators people want dead and are not afraid to say it out loud. However, Putin being assassinated could have devastating consequences. I believe NATO's and the EU's strategy is to use sanctions to squeeze Putin and the Russian oligarchs, to hurt their pocket books. I suspect the oligarchs may turn on Putin if they start to believe that Putin is putting their wealth and their ability to earn more wealth into jeopardy. If the Oligarchs turn on Putin, those who are loyal to Putin out of fear or support of Russia will begin to turn against Putin. If this happens, Putin could be deposed and peace may be restored. This may be the best way to end the War and prevent World War Three.

Again, the world is against Putin. At the UN Security Council meeting, only Russia  voted against the resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and calling for it to end, they used their veto to veto it; this was to be expected. What however supervised me is that both China and India abstained for the vote. China (PRC) make more sense as Taiwan is to China as Ukraine is to Russia, according to the PRC. India however supervised me at first, but then I was reminded of Kashmir in northern India. Kashmir is not only disputed between India, Pakistan, and even China, but it also as a sizable group calling for it to be separate from India. While writing this, I saw a twitter post alleging that when a Russian ship ran out of fuel and asked a Georgian Ship to help refill it, the Georgian soldiers responded: "Russian ship, go fuck yourself." The same response given by the Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island before a Russian ship killed them. Georgia, the country in the Caucus Maintains not the US State, was invaded by Russia in 2008 with Russia using very similar tactics to begin to war; the recognized break-away countries and invaded to "liberate" those countries which were actually Russian puppets.

 The People of Ukraine are suffering, more so than anyone. The country is threatened by a much larger country. Their backs are to a wall. Hundreds of Thousands have been displaced and many have become refuges heading west to Poland, Romania, and Moldova. Those who remain either cannot leave or are willing to die to keep Ukraine free of Russian control. Putin may not want to annex Ukraine into Russia, but he definitely wants to have a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine. My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine. May this war be over in their favor as soon as possible.

 Speaking of having their backs to a wall, the Ukrainians are like a cornered animal. They have no were to run and will fight fiercely. They are willing to sacrifice themselves for a free and democratic Ukraine. I've already mentioned the defenders of Snake Island, but they are not alone. One Ukrainian Soldier gave his life to manually detonate mines to destroy a bridge to prevent Russian troops from using it.

Then there is the rumored Ghost of Kyiv, this one pilot is alleged to have shot down at least 6 Russian planes in the first day of the invasion. If this is true this would make this pilot the first one-day Flying Ace, also known as an Ace in a Day, of the twenty-first century, to be a Flying Ace a pilot needs to shot down 5 enemy planes. Reports from Ukraine have claimed the pilot is real and has shot down an additional 4 planes, this would mean he or she has shot down 10 Russian planes, this would make him a Double Ace. He may or may not be real, regardless The Ghost of Kyiv is a morale boast for Ukraine and I personally think that Ukraine should not establish whether or not he is real until after the war. The Legend and Symbol of the Ghost of Kyiv will likely do more to encourage the people of Ukraine to fight back than the real pilot could ever.

Speaking of Symbols, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has become a symbol. First we need to established that prior to becoming President of Ukraine, he was the President of Ukraine. You may be wondering what I just said. Zelenskyy was a actor and comedian prior to his career in politics and as part of his acting career, he created, produced, and stared in a Ukrainian satire and comedy show called Servant of the People where he played the President of Ukraine. This show is part of the reason he is now the actual President. Despite being offered evacuation by the US and President Biden, he has chosen to remain in Kyiv and fight the Russian invasion, reportedly saying, "I need [anti-tank] ammo, not a ride." I've seen versions of this quote both with and without reference to the type of ammo, but less than 24 hours after talking with Biden, the US announced that anti-tank weaponry had been authorized in aid to Ukraine. Coincidence, I don't think so. Additionally, if the Russians kill Zelenskyy he will become a martyr, his they do not kill him, he is a hero; no matter what he is a symbol for Ukraine and symbols are hard to destroy.

 There is so much more to say, but for now I think I will leave it here. I may come back but here are some final thoughts:

• US Intelligence was accurate (redeeming itself domestically after the Iraq War) 
• Russia was not prepared for War
• The is the largest war in Europe since the Second World War. The Balkan Wars and the Russian invasion of Georgia are no where near the same scale.
  
• This war is being reported in real time by not only journalists, but also regular citizens.
• Putin is a dictator and tyrant who needs to be deposed.
• Ukraine is a NATO proxy in the Second Cold War
• Like Finland in the Winter War, Ukraine will fight till it no longer can, they will make Russia bleed for every scrap of land
• Russia taking Chernobyl was risky, exposing themselves to the dangerous radiation.
• Russia has not committed all its troops yet, be prepared for a second wave.
• If Russia does not stop soon, the economic fallout both in Russia and globally will be grow more catastrophic each day, ti will be even worse for Russia though.
• Russia is creating an even stronger Ukrainian Identity by invading and attacking Ukraine.
  

 

Image Credits

For Flag of Ukraine: By Government of Ukraine - ДСТУ 4512:2006 — Державний прапор України. Загальні технічні умови, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=421234