Understanding the Stituation in Afganistan

Understanding the Situation in Afghanistan

by Jonathan Berry August 19, 2021 

The situation in Afghanistan is a mess. There is no getting around it. However, to solely place the blame on President Biden is folly, as multiple people contributed to the rapid collapse the the democratic government and the Afghan Armed Forces during the Taliban's rapid advance.

To begin with, we need to look at how all this began. For that we need to go back twenty years to  September 11, 2001 when 19 members of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda hijacked four jet airplanes and used them in terrorist attacks which saw the Twin Towers of of the World Trade Center be destroyed and wing of the Pentagon damaged. The American people wanted revenge and Congress and President Bush obliged it.

Al-Qaeda and their leader Osama Bin Laden where being sheltered by the Taliban in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, who ruled Afghanistan at the time. The United States would invade Afghanistan and ended up overthrowing the Taliban, along with curtailing Al-Qaeda's ability to operate and killed Osama Bin Laden. The United States then began the process of nation building, creating a stable Afghan democracy.

However, the nation-building aspect of the mission was not just, 'hey, the government should rule with the consent of the governed and by representatives elected by the People. And we will help you accomplish that.' The United States also invested time, energy, and money fighting an insurgency from the deposed Taliban and training the Afghan Armed Forces.

the War in Afghanistan lasted for twenty-years. Question soon started being asked, 'when would the US leave Afghanistan?' "Would we ever leave?' and more. The War lasted into the terms of 4 different US Presidents. All promising to being the troops home. And it was not until the Trump administration when it seemed that it would actually happen. Trump negotiated a deal with the Taliban, cutting out the Afghan government, for the US to withdraw from the country. When Biden became President he had the withdrawal deadline changed from May to the end of August. The Trump administration also released a large number of Taliban members the US-Coalition had imprisoned, one of who is set to become the next leader of Afghanistan and the Taliban.

Now that context has been given, we can take a look at the current situation. The Taliban in less than two weeks took over Afghanistan. The Afghan President fled and the Afghan Armed Forces collapsed. In many cases they collapsed without a fight. The exact situation that occurred is likely what Biden, the Pentagon, and the US Intelligence community, thought would be the least likely scenario. They probably drew up plans for a rapid Taliban advance, but one were the Afghan's fought back. or where the rapid collapse did not occur until after the US had completed its withdrawal.

In my lay opinion, the failure came from the United States overestimating the Afghan Government and the Afghan Armed Forces will to fight. If they had the will to fight, things would have gone differently. Or if the US knew they did not have the will to fight, then things would also have gone differently. Though that second option would see the US stay in Afghanistan for who knows how long. In his Address earlier this week, Biden said (and I'm paraphrasing), why should Americans fight a civil war that the Afghans are unwilling to fight themselves. And I have to say, Biden is right. It is not like if the Afghans had the will to fight, but were unable to do so, but they were not even willing to fight. The United States gave every tool they could, but the will was just not something that could be given.

On a side note, it is interesting the America First Trumplicans believe the United States should stay in Afghanistan when they would have praised Trump for bringing the Troops home. Oh and Trump and the Republican party have removed any reference to Trump's negotiation of the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and his support for the withdrawal from their websites. I take it Trump does not want the credit anymore for it.

Now there is a race to evacuate all American from Afghanistan as well as Afghan interpreters and other Afghans who closely worked with the United States, As no one in their right mind would trust the Taliban's claims they will provide amnesty to those who worked with the United States. And the same goes for their claims that they will "respect women's rights withing the frame of Islam." And if you do trust their claims, you need to understand the strict and extremist interpretation of Islamic law, which would mean limited to no rights for women anyhow. Because of this it would be wrong of the United States not to assist in the evacuation of any Afghans who want to take refuge in the United States, or elsewhere for that matter. And for the US not to do so would be a gross betrayal of all we stand for.

Of course, I do not think it would be wise for the United States to re-invade Afghanistan. It would just be a huge PR disaster. The United States need to work diplomatically, maybe even ask the United Nations to launch an international effort to protect Human Rights in Afghanistan, and especially women's rights. In this case, the US should not work alone, it needs to show itself to be a partner in the international community. Domestically, it would also look bad for the US to reenter Afghanistan after the Troop leave the airport (as the US currently controls the Airport to ensure that the evacuation is not delayed).

However I do think it is likely that the Taliban will face opposition. The Panjshir Province has not yet been fully seized by the Taliban, their control in the province and the valley of the same name is extremely sparse. And reportedly the flags of the previous government and of the Resistance movement against the Taliban from prior to the US invasion are being flown. This indicates there is a chance that the Taliban will face a force that is willing to fight. The geography of Afghanistan gives a guerilla force an advantage. That is why the US could never fully defeat the Taliban in twenty years and any home-grown opposition to the Taliban who fights a guerilla war will also have that advantage. It should also be noted that the First Vice President of Afghanistan (the democratic government) has apparently reached the Valley and declared himself Acting President, in direct opposition to the Taliban. (source: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/panjshir-flies-flag-of-resistance-again-amrullah-says-he-is-president-of-afghanistan-298553).

Of course, you likely want to know who is to blame? Well my answer is that the Buck stops with Biden, but it does not mean he bares sole responsibility. Biden and his Administration are responsible for the current situation, both successes and failures in the evacuation. The Afghan Armed Forces and the Afghan government are responsible for not putting up a fight and putting the United States in the current situation when they collapsed. Trump and his Administration are responsible for giving legitimacy to the Taliban by meeting with them, freeing a lot of Taliban members, and negotiating the deal that Biden was obligated to follow. Basically for setting up the entire situation to begin with. But we should not also forgot President Bush who started the War in Afghanistan and President Obama who continued the war.

But perhaps it is best to blame the Taliban. They are the ones who went on the offensive, who believe they are the leaders of Afghanistan and believe that the country should be ruled under a strict and extreme interpretation of Islamic Law. They are Islamic Jihadist after all. They are ones who are misogynists and do not support women's rights. They are the ones who want to establish a theocracy. They are ones who will violate human rights to ensure their rule. They may claim different putting an a "nice face", but eventually their actions will reveal their true colors.